- A casino in Northern Virginia would generate modest tax revenue for Fairfax County
- A casino would not solve Fairfax County’s revenue problem
- Fairfax continues to seek new revenue sources
A casino in Northern Virginia by way of Fairfax County would generate considerable local tax revenue, a new study finds.
State lawmakers in Richmond continue to consider adding Fairfax County to the list of eligible host localities for slot machines and table games. Currently, only Portsmouth, Norfolk, Bristol, Danville, and Petersburg can have casinos.
Senate Bill 756, led by Senate Majority Leader Scott Surovell (D-Fairfax), gained the Senate’s blessing earlier this month with a 23-14 vote. The legislation has since moved to the Virginia House of Delegates, where it’s been assigned to the General Laws Committee.
There is stern opposition in Fairfax County to a casino. The county Board of Supervisors officially opposed SB657 in its 2026 Legislative Program. Homeowners’ associations and civic groups have also spoken against the casino push.
Regional Benefit
A recent study conducted by MuniCap, a public finance and consulting firm based in Maryland, finds that a casino resort would deliver Fairfax County much-needed tax revenue.
The report, obtained by FFXnow, projects that the casino would generate around $313.6 million a year in gross gaming revenue (GGR). That would lead to roughly $42.4 million in state and local taxes. Fairfax County’s share would be about $19.9 million.
Tax revenue from the resort’s other operations, such as hotel, concert, convention, food and beverage, and retail sales, would escalate Fairfax’s yearly benefit to more than $29 million.
While $29 million isn’t insignificant, it’s only a drop in Fairfax County’s annual spending. The county’s 2026 fiscal year includes $5.71 billion in general fund disbursements.
The county’s Jan. 1, 2026, implementation of a 4% tax surcharge on all meals and beverages sold by restaurants is estimated to generate $135.8 million this year alone.
Conservative Estimate?
MuniCap’s estimate that a casino in Northern Virginia would generate $313.6 million a year in GGR is seemingly conservative. In nearby National Harbor, MGM’s casino in Maryland reported 2025 GGR of more than $823.2 million.
Proponents of putting a casino in Fairfax County reason that much of the gaming money from the region that’s flowing into Maryland to MGM National Harbor would be captured.
Fairfax has continually relied on real estate tax hikes to fund increased spending and costs. With property taxes from the county’s large office buildings remaining lower than before the pandemic, new revenue sources are needed.
If Fairfax is allocated a casino, voters would have the final say on whether the project is greenlit through a county referendum. Both Caesars Entertainment and Wynn Resorts have expressed some level of interest in the opportunity.
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