- Analyst says data providers could benefit regardless of legal outcomes for prediction markets
- Signs emerging market makers want data offered by the providers
- NFL looms large
While there’s some sentiment in the investment community that prediction markets are partially to blame for recent weakness in shares of sports betting data providers, alternative perspectives are emerging indicating data entities could benefit from the growth of yes/no exchanges.
In a report published earlier this week following a meeting with Genius Sports (NYSE: GENI) executives, Citizens Equity Research analyst Jordan Bender notes the company is positioning itself to be a potential winner regardless of what happens in the prediction markets space. Genius is in the process of acquiring Legend, the owner of Casino.org.
The company continues to take a constructive approach around the emerging vertical whereby it believes it stands to benefit no matter the direction of the industry,” observes the analyst.
Bender adds there are incremental signs of increasing demand from market makers for the data purveyed by sports wagering providers. That could be a compelling long-term growth outlet because as the analyst notes, exchange fees are now annualizing at a rate of $3 billion.
How the NFL Figures Into the Equation
The NFL, which is a major Genius Sports shareholder, could figure prominently into a potential intersection of data providers and prediction markets.
While some smaller North American professional sports leagues have rapidly embraced prediction markets, the NFL has expressed caution. However, as Bender notes, there’s recently been some softening of that rhetoric.
“The NFL allowing prediction market companies to leverage league intellectual property would put GENI in a place to generate incremental revenue beyond its 2028 targets with nearly no prediction market revenue across the business, in our view,” says the analyst. “That said, if sports-related prediction markets were to be banned, the financial outlook provided would not change, and Genius would operate as usual.”
The NHL and Major League Soccer (MLS) are among the leagues that have agreements with prediction market operators.
Data Providers Have Prediction Markets Growth Potential
Some analysts previously pointed out that the rise of prediction markets isn’t necessarily harmful to data providers because some of the providers’ marquee clients are entering the yes/no derivatives arena.
“DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics have received no pushback to launching platforms, and stakeholders are changing tone with the realization the industry is not going away in the near term,” says Bender.
There’s belief on the sell-side that the US prediction markets industry will eventually be dominated by five companies, two of which are DraftKings and FanDuel. That could be constructive over the long-term for data providers.
***Disclosure*** Genius Sports is in the process of acquiring Legend, which is the owner of Casino.org.
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