- When they have access to choice, bettors prefer DraftKings sportsbook to Kalshi sports event contracts
- But when they’re in states where prediction markets are the only option, Kalshi scores well relative to rival prediction markets
- Most prediction market users have college degrees, nearly half make at least $100K per year
If they live in states where they can choose between online sports betting and prediction markets, most bettors prefer the former and data suggest they’ll use DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) sportsbook platform over Kalshi, the leading prediction market.
That’s according to a new prediction markets survey by Truist Securities. The research firm asked respondents what they view as the best product covering both online sports wagering and prediction markets and 20% said DraftKings sportsbook followed by Kalshi at 17%. FanDuel sportsbook was third at 15%.
Reasons of preference varied, with 39% pointing to the overall experience,19% success rate, 13% for best interface and just 11% for rewards,” notes Truist analyst Barry Jonas.
The script flipped when bettors and traders were asked what their preferred prediction market platform is. In that case, they go for Kalshi over competing offerings from sportsbook operators.
“Kalshi (17%) was viewed as having the best PM product, followed by DraftKings Predictions (8%), Polymarket (7%) and Robinhood PM (5%), with FanDuel Predicts trailing slightly (4%),” adds Jonas.
More Bright Spots for Sportsbooks in Prediction Markets Tussle
Respondents’ sentiment in the Truist survey jibes with other recent data points suggesting that in legal sports betting states, sportsbooks have the upper hand. For example, Flutter Entertainment (NYSE: FLUT) CEO Peter Jackson recently said there’s little evidence of prediction market cannibalization in states where FanDuel is live and legal.
Likewise, data indicate that in states where DraftKings offers online sports betting, Kalshi commands just 3% of deposits. That is to say there are geographic implications in the prediction market/sportsbook battle, many of which aren’t surprising.
“Similar to our prior analysis, our survey saw the largest response rate from states where OSB was illegal (CA- 16%,TX – 9%) and FL- 7%,” adds Jonas.
Florida isn’t a competitive sports betting market as only Hard Rock is allowed to offer that form of wagering there. There was at least one geographic surprise in the Truist survey. The response rate among New Yorkers using prediction markets was 9% — arguably high considering that’s the largest legal sports betting market in the US.
Noteworthy to the sports wagering industry and investors is the point that respondents to the Truist survey in states where sports betting isn’t legal said they’re likely to switch to traditional sportsbooks away from prediction markets when those states legalize sports wagering.
Prediction Market Users Skew Older Than Expected
While there’s ample talk about young people, particularly men, being vulnerable to the “dark sides” of prediction markets and sports betting, users of the former skew older than previously believed. The Truist survey indicates just 5% of prediction market users are 21 years old or younger.
“The majority of users were between 22-49 with the largest cohort between 30-39 (36%), followed by 40-49 (31%) and 22-29 (21%),” according to the survey.
Many retail event contract traders have some form of higher education and 46% make at least $100,000 per year.
“31% of respondents completed their bachelor’s degree and 26% completed a graduate degree (Master’s, PHD, JD, MBA). 25% said their highest level of education was some college/associate degree with 19% saying a high school diploma or less,” observes Jonas. “Our survey showed that annual household income for respondents was 37% between $50,000- $99,999, 30% between $100,000-$149,999 and 16% from $150,000-$249,999. 4% of respondents reported annual income over $250,000.”
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